Secret Alliance: Israel Carries Out Airstrikes in Egypt, With Cairo’s O.K.

NYTimes

A turning point: In 2015, Islamist militants brought down a Russian passenger jet in Sinai. Soon after, Israel began a wave of airstrikes there. CreditMaxim Grigoryev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The jihadists in Egypt’s Northern Sinai had killed hundreds of soldiers and police officers, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, briefly seized a major town and begun setting up armed checkpoints to claim territory. In late 2015, they brought down a Russian passenger jet.

Egypt appeared unable to stop them, so Israel, alarmed at the threat just over the border, took action.

For more than two years, unmarked Israeli drones, helicopters and jets have carried out a covert air campaign, conducting more than 100 airstrikes inside Egypt, frequently more than once a week — and all with the approval of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

The remarkable cooperation marks a new stage in the evolution of their singularly fraught relationship. Once enemies in three wars, then antagonists in an uneasy peace, Egypt and Israel are now secret allies in a covert war against a common foe.

An election campaign billboard for President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. American officials say he has kept the Israeli airstrikes hidden from all but a limited circle of military and intelligence officers.CreditMohamed El-Shahed/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

For Cairo, the Israeli intervention has helped the Egyptian military regain its footing in its nearly five-year battle against the militants. For Israel, the strikes have bolstered the security of its borders and the stability of its neighbor.

Their collaboration in the North Sinai is the most dramatic evidence yet of a quiet reconfiguration of the politics of the region. Shared enemies like ISIS, Iran and political Islam have quietly brought the leaders of several Arab states into growing alignment with Israel — even as their officials and news media continue to vilify the Jewish state in public.

American officials say Israel’s air campaign has played a decisive role in enabling the Egyptian armed forces to gain an upper hand against the militants. But the Israeli role is having some unexpected consequences for the region, including on Middle East peace negotiations, in part by convincing senior Israeli officials that Egypt is now dependent on them even to control its own territory.

Seven current or former British and American officials involved in Middle East policy described the Israeli attacks inside Egypt, all speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified information.

Spokesmen for the Israeli and Egyptian militaries declined to comment, and so did a spokesman for the Egyptian foreign ministry.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel at a conference in December. His government has conducted more than 100 airstrikes inside Egypt since 2015. CreditMenahem Kahana/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Both neighbors have sought to conceal Israel’s role in the airstrikes for fear of a backlash inside Egypt, where government officials and the state-controlled media continue to discuss Israel as a nemesis and pledge fidelity to the Palestinian cause.

The Israeli drones are unmarked, and the Israeli jets and helicopters cover up their markings. Some fly circuitous routes to create the impression that they are based in the Egyptian mainland, according to American officials briefed on their operations.

In Israel, military censors restrict public reports of the airstrikes. It is unclear if any Israeli troops or special forces have set foot inside Egyptian borders, which would increase the risk of exposure.

Mr. Sisi has taken even more care, American officials say, to hide the origin of the strikes from all but a limited circle of military and intelligence officers. The Egyptian government has declared the North Sinai a closed military zone, barring journalists from gathering information there.

Egyptian soldiers and policemen carry the coffins of 25 policemen killed in the North Sinai in 2013. Islamist militants began attacking government targets in Sinai after the military ousted an Islamist government in 2013.CreditKhaled Desouki/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Behind the scenes, Egypt’s top generals have grown steadily closer to their Israeli counterparts since the signing of the Camp David accords 40 years ago, in 1978. Egyptian security forces have helped Israel enforce restrictionson the flow of goods in and out of the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian territory bordering Egypt controlled by the militant group Hamas. And Egyptian and Israeli intelligence agencies have long shared information about militants on both sides of the border.

Israeli officials were concerned in 2012 when Egypt, after its Arab Spring revolt, elected a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood to the presidency. The new president, Mohamed Morsi, pledged to respect the Camp David agreements. But the Israelis worried about the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideological kinship with Hamas and its historic hostility to the Jewish state itself.

A year later, Mr. Sisi, then the defense minister, ousted Mr. Morsi in a military takeover. Israel welcomed the change in government and urged Washington to accept it. That solidified the partnership between the generals on both sides of the border.

The North Sinai, a loosely governed region of mountainous desert between the Suez Canal and the Israeli border, became a refuge for Islamist militantsin the decade before Mr. Sisi took power. The main jihadist organization, Ansar Beit al Maqdis — the Partisans of Jerusalem — had concentrated on attacking Israel, but after Mr. Sisi’s takeover it began leading a wave of deadly assaults against Egyptian security forces.

A few weeks after Mr. Sisi took power, in August 2013, two mysterious explosions killed five suspected militants in a district of the North Sinai not far from the Israeli border. The Associated Press reported that unnamed Egyptian officials had said Israeli drones fired missiles that killed the militants, possibly because of Egyptian warnings of a planned cross-border attack on an Israeli airport. (Israel had closed the airport the previous day.)

Mr. Sisi’s spokesman, Col. Ahmed Ali, denied it. “There is no truth in form or in substance to the existence of any Israeli attacks inside Egyptian territory,” he said in a statement at the time, promising an investigation. “The claims of coordination between the Egyptian and Israeli sides in this matter are totally lacking in truth and go against sense and logic.”

A funeral convoy carrying the bodies of four Egyptian militants killed in an airstrike in Sinai in 2013. The Egyptian government denied reports that they were killed by missiles fired by an Israeli drone.CreditAgence France-Presse — Getty Images

Israel declined to comment, and the episode was all but forgotten.

Two years later, however, Mr. Sisi was still struggling to defeat the militants, who by then had killed at least several hundred Egyptians soldiers and policemen.

In November 2014, Ansar Beit al Maqdis formally declared itself the Sinai Province branch of the Islamic State. On July 1, 2015, the militants briefly captured control of a North Sinai town, Sheikh Zuwaid, and retreated only after Egyptian jets and helicopters struck the town, state news agencies said. Then, at the end of October, the militants brought down the Russian charter jet, killing all 224 people aboard.

It was around the time of those ominous milestones, in late 2015, that Israel began its wave of airstrikes, the American officials said, which they credit with killing a long roster of militant leaders.

Though equally brutal successors often stepped in to replace them, the militants appeared to adopt less ambitious goals. They no longer dared trying to close roads, set up checkpoints or claim territory. They moved into hitting softer targets like Christians in Sinai, churches in the Nile Valley or other Muslims they view as heretics. In November 2017, the militants killed 311 worshipers at a Sufi mosque in the North Sinai.

By then, American officials say, the Israelis were complaining to Washington that the Egyptians were not holding up their end of the arrangement. Cairo, they said, had failed to follow the airstrikes with coordinated movements of its ground troops.

Although Israeli military censors have prevented the news media there from reporting on the strikes, some news outlets have circumvented the censorship by citing a 2016 Bloomberg News report, in which an unnamed former Israeli official said there had been Israeli drone strikes inside of Egypt.

After the Israeli airstrikes began, Islamist militants retrenched and began attacking softer targets. In November 2017, militants killed 311 worshipers at a Sufi mosque in the North Sinai. CreditAgence France-Presse — Getty Images

Zack Gold, a researcher specializing in the North Sinai who has worked in Israel, compared the airstrikes to Israel’s nuclear weapons program — also an open secret.

“The Israeli strikes inside of Egypt are almost at the same level,” he said. “Every time anyone says anything about the nuclear program, they have to jokingly add ‘according to the foreign press.’ Israel’s main strategic interest in Egypt is stability, and they believe that open disclosure would threaten that stability.”

Inside the American government, the strikes are widely known enough that diplomats and intelligence officials have discussed them in closed briefings with lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers in open committee hearings have alluded approvingly to the surprisingly close Egyptian and Israeli cooperation in the North Sinai.

In a telephone interview, Senator Benjamin L. Cardin of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, declined to discuss specifics of Israel’s military actions in Egypt, but said Israel was not acting “out of goodness to a neighbor.”

“Israel does not want the bad stuff that is happening in the Egyptian Sinai to get into Israel,” he said, adding that the Egyptian effort to hide Israel’s role from its citizens “is not a new phenomenon.”

Some American supporters of Israel complain that, given Egypt’s reliance on the Israeli military, Egyptian officials, diplomats and state-controlled news media should stop publicly denouncing the Jewish state, especially in international forums like the United Nations.

“You speak with Sisi and he talks about security cooperation with Israel, and you speak with Israelis and they talk about security cooperation with Egypt, but then this duplicitous game continues,” said Representative Eliot L. Engel of New York, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Relations Committee. “It is confusing to me.”

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has also pointedly reminded American diplomats of the Israeli military role in Sinai. In February 2016, for example, Secretary of State John Kerry convened a secret summit in Aqaba, Jordan, with Mr. Sisi, King Abdullah of Jordan and Mr. Netanyahu, according to three American officials involved in the talks or briefed about them.

Mr. Kerry proposed a regional agreement in which Egypt and Jordan would guarantee Israel’s security as part of a deal for a Palestinian state.

Mr. Netanyahu scoffed at the idea.

Israeli’s military was already propping up Egypt’s military, he said, according to the Americans. If Egypt was unable to control the ground within its own borders, Mr. Netanyahu argued, it was hardly in a position to guarantee security for Israel.

Secret Alliance: Israel Carries Out Airstrikes in Egypt, With Cairo’s O.K.

NYTimes

A turning point: In 2015, Islamist militants brought down a Russian passenger jet in Sinai. Soon after, Israel began a wave of airstrikes there. CreditMaxim Grigoryev/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The jihadists in Egypt’s Northern Sinai had killed hundreds of soldiers and police officers, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, briefly seized a major town and begun setting up armed checkpoints to claim territory. In late 2015, they brought down a Russian passenger jet.

Egypt appeared unable to stop them, so Israel, alarmed at the threat just over the border, took action.

For more than two years, unmarked Israeli drones, helicopters and jets have carried out a covert air campaign, conducting more than 100 airstrikes inside Egypt, frequently more than once a week — and all with the approval of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

The remarkable cooperation marks a new stage in the evolution of their singularly fraught relationship. Once enemies in three wars, then antagonists in an uneasy peace, Egypt and Israel are now secret allies in a covert war against a common foe.

An election campaign billboard for President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. American officials say he has kept the Israeli airstrikes hidden from all but a limited circle of military and intelligence officers.CreditMohamed El-Shahed/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

For Cairo, the Israeli intervention has helped the Egyptian military regain its footing in its nearly five-year battle against the militants. For Israel, the strikes have bolstered the security of its borders and the stability of its neighbor.

Their collaboration in the North Sinai is the most dramatic evidence yet of a quiet reconfiguration of the politics of the region. Shared enemies like ISIS, Iran and political Islam have quietly brought the leaders of several Arab states into growing alignment with Israel — even as their officials and news media continue to vilify the Jewish state in public.

American officials say Israel’s air campaign has played a decisive role in enabling the Egyptian armed forces to gain an upper hand against the militants. But the Israeli role is having some unexpected consequences for the region, including on Middle East peace negotiations, in part by convincing senior Israeli officials that Egypt is now dependent on them even to control its own territory.

Seven current or former British and American officials involved in Middle East policy described the Israeli attacks inside Egypt, all speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified information.

Spokesmen for the Israeli and Egyptian militaries declined to comment, and so did a spokesman for the Egyptian foreign ministry.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel at a conference in December. His government has conducted more than 100 airstrikes inside Egypt since 2015. CreditMenahem Kahana/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Both neighbors have sought to conceal Israel’s role in the airstrikes for fear of a backlash inside Egypt, where government officials and the state-controlled media continue to discuss Israel as a nemesis and pledge fidelity to the Palestinian cause.

The Israeli drones are unmarked, and the Israeli jets and helicopters cover up their markings. Some fly circuitous routes to create the impression that they are based in the Egyptian mainland, according to American officials briefed on their operations.

In Israel, military censors restrict public reports of the airstrikes. It is unclear if any Israeli troops or special forces have set foot inside Egyptian borders, which would increase the risk of exposure.

Mr. Sisi has taken even more care, American officials say, to hide the origin of the strikes from all but a limited circle of military and intelligence officers. The Egyptian government has declared the North Sinai a closed military zone, barring journalists from gathering information there.

Egyptian soldiers and policemen carry the coffins of 25 policemen killed in the North Sinai in 2013. Islamist militants began attacking government targets in Sinai after the military ousted an Islamist government in 2013.CreditKhaled Desouki/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Behind the scenes, Egypt’s top generals have grown steadily closer to their Israeli counterparts since the signing of the Camp David accords 40 years ago, in 1978. Egyptian security forces have helped Israel enforce restrictionson the flow of goods in and out of the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian territory bordering Egypt controlled by the militant group Hamas. And Egyptian and Israeli intelligence agencies have long shared information about militants on both sides of the border.

Israeli officials were concerned in 2012 when Egypt, after its Arab Spring revolt, elected a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood to the presidency. The new president, Mohamed Morsi, pledged to respect the Camp David agreements. But the Israelis worried about the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideological kinship with Hamas and its historic hostility to the Jewish state itself.

A year later, Mr. Sisi, then the defense minister, ousted Mr. Morsi in a military takeover. Israel welcomed the change in government and urged Washington to accept it. That solidified the partnership between the generals on both sides of the border.

The North Sinai, a loosely governed region of mountainous desert between the Suez Canal and the Israeli border, became a refuge for Islamist militantsin the decade before Mr. Sisi took power. The main jihadist organization, Ansar Beit al Maqdis — the Partisans of Jerusalem — had concentrated on attacking Israel, but after Mr. Sisi’s takeover it began leading a wave of deadly assaults against Egyptian security forces.

A few weeks after Mr. Sisi took power, in August 2013, two mysterious explosions killed five suspected militants in a district of the North Sinai not far from the Israeli border. The Associated Press reported that unnamed Egyptian officials had said Israeli drones fired missiles that killed the militants, possibly because of Egyptian warnings of a planned cross-border attack on an Israeli airport. (Israel had closed the airport the previous day.)

Mr. Sisi’s spokesman, Col. Ahmed Ali, denied it. “There is no truth in form or in substance to the existence of any Israeli attacks inside Egyptian territory,” he said in a statement at the time, promising an investigation. “The claims of coordination between the Egyptian and Israeli sides in this matter are totally lacking in truth and go against sense and logic.”

A funeral convoy carrying the bodies of four Egyptian militants killed in an airstrike in Sinai in 2013. The Egyptian government denied reports that they were killed by missiles fired by an Israeli drone.CreditAgence France-Presse — Getty Images

Israel declined to comment, and the episode was all but forgotten.

Two years later, however, Mr. Sisi was still struggling to defeat the militants, who by then had killed at least several hundred Egyptians soldiers and policemen.

In November 2014, Ansar Beit al Maqdis formally declared itself the Sinai Province branch of the Islamic State. On July 1, 2015, the militants briefly captured control of a North Sinai town, Sheikh Zuwaid, and retreated only after Egyptian jets and helicopters struck the town, state news agencies said. Then, at the end of October, the militants brought down the Russian charter jet, killing all 224 people aboard.

It was around the time of those ominous milestones, in late 2015, that Israel began its wave of airstrikes, the American officials said, which they credit with killing a long roster of militant leaders.

Though equally brutal successors often stepped in to replace them, the militants appeared to adopt less ambitious goals. They no longer dared trying to close roads, set up checkpoints or claim territory. They moved into hitting softer targets like Christians in Sinai, churches in the Nile Valley or other Muslims they view as heretics. In November 2017, the militants killed 311 worshipers at a Sufi mosque in the North Sinai.

By then, American officials say, the Israelis were complaining to Washington that the Egyptians were not holding up their end of the arrangement. Cairo, they said, had failed to follow the airstrikes with coordinated movements of its ground troops.

Although Israeli military censors have prevented the news media there from reporting on the strikes, some news outlets have circumvented the censorship by citing a 2016 Bloomberg News report, in which an unnamed former Israeli official said there had been Israeli drone strikes inside of Egypt.

After the Israeli airstrikes began, Islamist militants retrenched and began attacking softer targets. In November 2017, militants killed 311 worshipers at a Sufi mosque in the North Sinai. CreditAgence France-Presse — Getty Images

Zack Gold, a researcher specializing in the North Sinai who has worked in Israel, compared the airstrikes to Israel’s nuclear weapons program — also an open secret.

“The Israeli strikes inside of Egypt are almost at the same level,” he said. “Every time anyone says anything about the nuclear program, they have to jokingly add ‘according to the foreign press.’ Israel’s main strategic interest in Egypt is stability, and they believe that open disclosure would threaten that stability.”

Inside the American government, the strikes are widely known enough that diplomats and intelligence officials have discussed them in closed briefings with lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers in open committee hearings have alluded approvingly to the surprisingly close Egyptian and Israeli cooperation in the North Sinai.

In a telephone interview, Senator Benjamin L. Cardin of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, declined to discuss specifics of Israel’s military actions in Egypt, but said Israel was not acting “out of goodness to a neighbor.”

“Israel does not want the bad stuff that is happening in the Egyptian Sinai to get into Israel,” he said, adding that the Egyptian effort to hide Israel’s role from its citizens “is not a new phenomenon.”

Some American supporters of Israel complain that, given Egypt’s reliance on the Israeli military, Egyptian officials, diplomats and state-controlled news media should stop publicly denouncing the Jewish state, especially in international forums like the United Nations.

“You speak with Sisi and he talks about security cooperation with Israel, and you speak with Israelis and they talk about security cooperation with Egypt, but then this duplicitous game continues,” said Representative Eliot L. Engel of New York, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Relations Committee. “It is confusing to me.”

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has also pointedly reminded American diplomats of the Israeli military role in Sinai. In February 2016, for example, Secretary of State John Kerry convened a secret summit in Aqaba, Jordan, with Mr. Sisi, King Abdullah of Jordan and Mr. Netanyahu, according to three American officials involved in the talks or briefed about them.

Mr. Kerry proposed a regional agreement in which Egypt and Jordan would guarantee Israel’s security as part of a deal for a Palestinian state.

Mr. Netanyahu scoffed at the idea.

Israeli’s military was already propping up Egypt’s military, he said, according to the Americans. If Egypt was unable to control the ground within its own borders, Mr. Netanyahu argued, it was hardly in a position to guarantee security for Israel.

Who Controls The World’s Longest River?

When Ethiopia’s prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn visits Egypt this week to discuss bilateral cooperation in sectors like health, education, and agriculture one contentious issue will stand out: the completion of Africa’s largest dam.

It is no secret what Egypt thinks about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the centerpiece of the Horn of Africa nation’s bid to become Africa’s biggest exporter of electricity. From the get-go, Egypt was opposed to the idea of the dam, and politicians including former president Mohamed Morsi were caught on air proposing military action against Ethiopia.

Located in the headwaters of the Blue Nile and planned to produce 6,000 megawatts of electricity, the dam will be Africa’s largest hydroelectric power plant and will boost the economic growth of Ethiopia. As a downstream, desert nation, Egypt says the dam will disrupt the flow of the Nile to its almost 100 million people, potentially crippling its agricultural sector and industries.

During the filling of the reservoir, experts say the Nile’s freshwater flow to Egypt may be cut by 25%. This will also compound the other problems threatening the Nile including climate change, population boom, urban sprawl, besides rising sea levels that lead to saltwater intrusion.

Based on international accords signed in 1929 and amended in 1959, Egypt has always asserted its right to the lion’s share of the Nile’s water. But under president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and as the dam has continued to take shape, Cairo seemed to have softened its stance, even signing a cooperation agreement in 2015 to study the potential impact of the dam. But those talks are yet to bear any fruit, and to boost its position in the dispute, Sisi launched a charm offensive by visiting upstream Nile Basin nations including Sudan, Tanzania, Rwanda—and even Ethiopia.

And now, geopolitical strains between Sudan and Egypt are threatening to undermine any progress and unravel a regional crisis. Tensions over who owns the Hala’ib Triangle on the Red Sea has flared again, leading Khartoum to recall its ambassador from Cairo in early January. In retaliation, Egypt sent hundreds of its troops to a United Arab Emirates military base in Eritrea, and Sudan responded by closing its border with Eritrea and sending more troops there.

Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam seen under construction during a media tour in Benishangul Gumuz Region, Guba Woreda, Ethiopia, in this March 31, 2015 file photo.
Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. (Reuters/Tiksa Negeri/Files)

The current tensions are also being exacerbated by what Cairo sees as Turkish meddling in the region. In December, president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey visited Sudan, with president Omar al-Bashir agreeing to temporarily hand over the Red Sea port city of Suakin to Turkey to increase tourism—a move Cairo saw as Turkey’s attempt to build it third base abroad after the ones in Qatar and Somalia. Cairo also accuses both Khartoum and Ankara of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, the banned Islamist outfit that was once the country’s most powerful political group.

On the Nile issue, Egypt also believes al-Bashir is on Ethiopia’s side and recently proposed excluding Sudan from the negotiations. Issandr El Amrani, the North Africa project director for the International Crisis Group, says Sudan’s shift is in part because of what it stands to gain including electricity supply and the prevention of flooding during rainy seasons.

The spat over the Nile also takes on a new significance as Egypt heads to the polls in March. President Sisi has said Egypt doesn’t want a warwith its neighbors and warned Egyptian media from using “offensive language” against them. But with no “trusted mechanism” for negotiations now, El Amrani says the dust-up will only intensify.

“The Nile issue is really important in Egypt,” he said. And “the larger question that we have to ask ourselves now is ‘Where is this headed?’”

Sign up for the Quartz Africa Weekly Brief — the most important and interesting news from across the continent, in your inbox.

Who Controls The World’s Longest River?

When Ethiopia’s prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn visits Egypt this week to discuss bilateral cooperation in sectors like health, education, and agriculture one contentious issue will stand out: the completion of Africa’s largest dam.

It is no secret what Egypt thinks about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the centerpiece of the Horn of Africa nation’s bid to become Africa’s biggest exporter of electricity. From the get-go, Egypt was opposed to the idea of the dam, and politicians including former president Mohamed Morsi were caught on air proposing military action against Ethiopia.

Located in the headwaters of the Blue Nile and planned to produce 6,000 megawatts of electricity, the dam will be Africa’s largest hydroelectric power plant and will boost the economic growth of Ethiopia. As a downstream, desert nation, Egypt says the dam will disrupt the flow of the Nile to its almost 100 million people, potentially crippling its agricultural sector and industries.

During the filling of the reservoir, experts say the Nile’s freshwater flow to Egypt may be cut by 25%. This will also compound the other problems threatening the Nile including climate change, population boom, urban sprawl, besides rising sea levels that lead to saltwater intrusion.

Based on international accords signed in 1929 and amended in 1959, Egypt has always asserted its right to the lion’s share of the Nile’s water. But under president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and as the dam has continued to take shape, Cairo seemed to have softened its stance, even signing a cooperation agreement in 2015 to study the potential impact of the dam. But those talks are yet to bear any fruit, and to boost its position in the dispute, Sisi launched a charm offensive by visiting upstream Nile Basin nations including Sudan, Tanzania, Rwanda—and even Ethiopia.

And now, geopolitical strains between Sudan and Egypt are threatening to undermine any progress and unravel a regional crisis. Tensions over who owns the Hala’ib Triangle on the Red Sea has flared again, leading Khartoum to recall its ambassador from Cairo in early January. In retaliation, Egypt sent hundreds of its troops to a United Arab Emirates military base in Eritrea, and Sudan responded by closing its border with Eritrea and sending more troops there.

Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam seen under construction during a media tour in Benishangul Gumuz Region, Guba Woreda, Ethiopia, in this March 31, 2015 file photo.
Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. (Reuters/Tiksa Negeri/Files)

The current tensions are also being exacerbated by what Cairo sees as Turkish meddling in the region. In December, president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey visited Sudan, with president Omar al-Bashir agreeing to temporarily hand over the Red Sea port city of Suakin to Turkey to increase tourism—a move Cairo saw as Turkey’s attempt to build it third base abroad after the ones in Qatar and Somalia. Cairo also accuses both Khartoum and Ankara of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, the banned Islamist outfit that was once the country’s most powerful political group.

On the Nile issue, Egypt also believes al-Bashir is on Ethiopia’s side and recently proposed excluding Sudan from the negotiations. Issandr El Amrani, the North Africa project director for the International Crisis Group, says Sudan’s shift is in part because of what it stands to gain including electricity supply and the prevention of flooding during rainy seasons.

The spat over the Nile also takes on a new significance as Egypt heads to the polls in March. President Sisi has said Egypt doesn’t want a warwith its neighbors and warned Egyptian media from using “offensive language” against them. But with no “trusted mechanism” for negotiations now, El Amrani says the dust-up will only intensify.

“The Nile issue is really important in Egypt,” he said. And “the larger question that we have to ask ourselves now is ‘Where is this headed?’”

Sign up for the Quartz Africa Weekly Brief — the most important and interesting news from across the continent, in your inbox.

Egypt Vs. Sudan?

Talks are stalled over how to deal with the impact of a $5 billion dam that could threaten Egypt’s lifeblood.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, currently under construction, on May 15, 2016.  (DigitalGlobe via Getty Images)
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, currently under construction, on May 15, 2016. (DigitalGlobe via Getty Images)

A diplomatic spat between Egypt and Sudan is spilling over into the long-running dispute over a dam Ethiopia is building on the Nile River, which Cairo sees as an existential threat.

On Thursday, Sudan officially warned of threats to its eastern border from massing Egyptian and Eritrean troops, while Egypt has also moved into a disputed triangle of territory claimed by both Cairo and Khartoum. Late last week, Sudan abruptly recalled its ambassador to Egypt, the latest chapter in a fight that started last summer with trade boycotts and that has only intensified in recent weeks.

At heart, the bad blood is part of a broader regional conflict pitting Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other countries against what they see as Turkey’s meddling in the region. Ankara has supported Qatar in its diplomatic battle with other Gulf States, and it is now jumping squarely into the Red Sea, making Egypt increasingly nervous. Cairo was particularly incensed when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Sudan in December 2017 and won rights to Suakin Island, a port city on the Red Sea, raising concerns that Ankara could build a military base there.

That diplomatic dustup is making it much harder to deal with another potentially explosive problem in the relationship: Sudan’s support for Ethiopia’s construction of a massive $5 billion dam on the Nile River that could choke off vital supplies of water downstream. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has called the dam a matter of “life or death.”

All the regional rivalries around the Red Sea are intertwined, said Kelsey Lilley, associate director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council, “but the dam itself is a big irritant among the three countries.”

And while the three countries have butted heads over the dam for years, the feud between Egypt and Sudan is escalating quickly.

“The tensions are significant and real and higher than they’ve been,” said Steven Cook, a North Africa and Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Things are starting to come to a head.”

The broader dispute has cemented a freeze in talks between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia on how to manage the impact of the dam, even as the clock is ticking. The dam is more than 60 percent complete, and Ethiopia could start to fill the reservoir as soon as this summer, leaving little time to find workable solutions.

“This should act as a political wake-up call for immediate action for joint decision-making on the filling issue, because 2019 will be a critical year,” said Dr. Ana Cascão, an expert on Nile hydropolitics, who has written extensively about the dam.

A dam at the head of the Blue Nile in the Ethiopian highlands has been a dream since the 1960s. But it was only in 2011 — when Egypt was rocked by the Arab Spring and facing domestic upheaval — that Ethiopia unilaterally decided to start work on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the biggest hydroelectric project in Africa.

Ever since, Egypt has been terrified of the potential impacts. The dam, a huge power project at the head of the Blue Nile meant to meet fast-growing Ethiopia’s need for more electricity, will hold a year’s worth of river flow behind its concrete walls. Depending on how quickly Ethiopia fills the dam, downstream flows to Egypt could be restricted — a potentially fatal threat for a country dependent on agriculture that is already facing severe water shortages.

How Egypt Is Slowly Losing Its Hold Over the Nile River?

WPR

How Egypt Is Slowly Losing Its Hold Over the Nile River

For millennia, the Nile River has served as the backbone of Egypt, the lifeblood of its people. Gradually, though, the land of the pharaohs is losing its grip.

Late last month, Uganda hosted the first ever heads-of-state summit aimed at resolving disagreements over the waters of the Nile. But it produced no major breakthrough and appeared to be a flop. In coming months, the opening of a major dam in Ethiopia will truly test Egypt’s anxieties that countries upstream are refusing to bow to its demands. The dam’s opening will reveal just how much leverage Egypt has lost.

Egypt has a strong historical and legal claim to the Nile dating back to the colonial era, but that framework is being undercut by rapid development and population growth upstream. Currently, more than 430 million people live across the 11 countries that make up the Nile Basin: Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Eritrea. The population of the Nile Basin is likely to jump to nearly 1 billion by 2050.

The upstream countries “can’t wait forever for Egypt to get onboard,” says Aaron Wolf, a professor of geosciences at Oregon State University. At the same time, he adds, the river is being valued less for its water supply and more as a means of producing electricity. “That whole conversation is shifting both the power balance and the interest to upstream states.”

Under a 1959 agreement, rights to virtually all of the Nile’s water was split between Egypt, which is entitled to 55.5 billion cubic meters, and Sudan, with 18.5 billion. Egyptians and Sudanese depend on the water much more than their upstream neighbors; Egypt in particular receives practically no rainfall, and relies on the mighty river for 97 percent of its water. But over the years, upstream countries have taken issue with the terms of that decades-old agreement, to which they were never parties.

In 1999, nine riparian countries formed the Nile Basin Initiative to try and manage the waters. South Sudan became the 10th member after it gained independence in 2011; Eritrea sits as an observer. The initiative began work on a new framework for governing the river, but Egypt and Sudan refused to sign on to a deal reached by other nations in 2010, known as the Entebbe Agreement. Egypt subsequently froze its participation in the initiative and has held out ever since, insisting it won’t return unless it is guaranteed notification before the construction of any new project on the river and until all decisions are made by consensus.

Other nations are loath to give Cairo de facto veto power over their domestic infrastructure plans. But to hear Egypt tell it, any major change to the framework and its historical water rights could leave it dying of thirst.

Sissi has made a noticeable push toward greater engagement with his African neighbors south of the Sahara, but the dispute over the Nile is proving to be a stubborn obstacle.

That position inspired Egypt’s initial opposition to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is scheduled to open along the Blue Nile at some point in the next three or four months. Ethiopians view the dam, which will be Africa’s largest hydroelectric facility, as a source of national pride that they hope will power the continent’s fastest-growing economy. When construction is complete, the dam will stand more than a mile wide and 570 feet tall, and will more than double the country’s current capacity to generate energy. Waters from the Blue Nile comprise roughly 80 percent of the river that traces its way into Egypt.

For decades, Egyptian politicians have discussed any interference with the Nile’s waters as an existential threat. In 2013, Egyptian politicians unknowingly mused about sabotaging the Ethiopian dam on live television. Before construction began in 2011, Egypt reportedly considered a military response to block Ethiopia from interfering with the river’s flow. Decades earlier, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat declared that water was “the only matter that could take Egypt to war again.”

Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan—where the Blue and White Niles meet to form the great river—signed a deal to resolve their dispute in 2015. Egypt has since offered grumbling support for the dam, suggesting it recognizes the need to support upstream nations’ demands. Once the dam opens, no one expects Egypt to take a rash step and follow up on Sadat’s old threat.

But Egypt’s internal politics have made it difficult to back down entirely, so some amount of posturing is likely. Yet Cairo has few cards to play.

The more apocalyptic predictions about the dam’s impact on Egypt’s waters are likely overstated, says Kevin Wheeler of Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute. “There’s a lot of hyperbole, ranging from some believing it’ll do nothing, to others claiming that it will devastate Egypt,” Wheeler says. “Neither of those two extremes are accurate, and there’s a lot of space in the middle for reality.” If anything, the dam could help regulate water flowing into Egypt and keep the country supplied during times of drought.

The biggest test will be in the first few years, as Ethiopia plugs up the Blue Nile to fill a vast new reservoir. If Egypt and Ethiopia are on the same page, Wheeler says, they will be best positioned to mitigate any droughts or water shortages. After that, water is likely to flow downstream at a constant pace.

The Ethiopian dam was not explicitly on the agenda during the recent Nile summit. But Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi were the only two foreign leaders who bothered to show up, suggesting that other nations want them to resolve their differences before anything else can be accomplished.

The summit began inauspiciously, when presidential guards for Sissi and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni got into a shoving match inside the State House, Uganda’s presidential residence. It didn’t get much better when technical teams from multiple countries reportedly walked out at one point during the discussions. Analysts said little of consequence had been achieved.

Sissi has made a noticeable push toward greater engagement with his African neighbors south of the Sahara, but the dispute over the Nile is proving to be a stubborn obstacle. Still, his presence in Kampala suggests that he recognizes Egypt’s changing position and is trying to maintain some authority.

With Egypt’s population set to grow by nearly 30 million by 2030, its own demand for water will increase. All the while, climate change will increase the variability of the river’s flow by 50 percent, according to a recent study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The Nile’s volume is likely to rise by 10 to 15 percent, researchers predict, but there will also be more years of drought as well as years of surplus. All that instability might make it more appealing to rely on a system of dams that regularize and control the river’s flow.

The passage of time will force Egypt into signing on to a new or modified river management agreement, predicts Salman M. A. Salman, a consultant and former water law adviser for the World Bank. “Egypt will look right and left and will find that the dam is completed, that Ethiopia is trying to build other dams and the only alternative left for them is to cooperate,” Salman says. “Time is not on their side.”

Julian Hattem is a journalist based in Kampala, Uganda. You can follow him on Twitter at @jmhattem.

Former President Mubarak considered using Tu-160 to destroy Ethiopian dam

Egyptindependent

An unverified voice recording attributed to Egypt’s Former President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak has generated great controversy among Egyptian social media users.

The recording, which surfaced on a Facebook page titled ‘Ana Asef Ya Rais’ [‘I’m sorry Mr. President’], featured statements from Mubarak on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam ‘GERD’.

Mubarak relinquished power in 2011 following the 25 January Revolution and has been subjected to judicial trials since.

In the unverified voice clip, Mubarak said that Ethiopia did not dare to establish GERD during his era, adding that he had the ability to destroy it with Russian-made Tupolev Tu-160 fighters, if it had.

Mubarak also asserted in the recording that Egypt is currently considered a weak country, unlike in the past when the world saw it as powerful one.

Egypt Independent made several attempts to reach administrators of the Facebook page that broadcast the voice recording of Mubarak.

WHAT EGYPT’S EL-SISSI WANTS FROM TRUMP

 

Egypt President el-Sisi Says There is “No Doubt” that Donald Trump Would Make A Strong Leader
Image result for EL-SISI and trump

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi visits the White House to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump.

El-Sissi’s first visit to the White House is important for U.S.-Egypt relations. Both leaders have repeatedly expressed admiration for each other, and Cairo appears eager to push for a stronger bilateral relationship that it perceives will do more to benefit its interests than its strained relationship with the Obama administration.

Ahead of the visit, the White House released a statement praising the “positive momentum [Trump and el-Sissi] have built for the United States-Egypt relationship.” Cairo has also been vocal in expressing support for strategic U.S.-Egypt ties and enhanced cooperation under the Trump administration.

In addition to the overall strengthening of ties, el-Sissi likely has four major priorities for this visit: securing U.S. support for Egypt’s counterterror interests, pressuring the United States to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization, promoting Egypt’s economic reform program, and presenting Egypt as a leading regional power.

Security and Terrorism

Egypt presents itself as being on “the frontlines of the global war against terrorism” and extremism. That narrative drives much of the Egyptian rhetoric surrounding U.S. military assistance to Cairo.

04_03_Sisi_Trump_02Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in New Delhi in September 2016. Elissa Miller writes that el-Sisi’s visit comes amid Trump’s proposed budget cuts, which would significantly reduce spending on U.S. foreign aid. However, the administration is unlikely to cut foreign military financing to Egypt, which makes up the bulk of the $1.3 billion in annual assistance the United States gives to Egypt.CATHAL MCNAUGHTON/REUTERS

During a recent visit to Washington, meetings included those with Deputy National Security Advisor K. T. McFarland and Senior Director for Middle East policies on the National Security Council Derek Harvey. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry called for continued U.S. assistance for Egypt’s counterterror operations and efforts as crucial to maintaining regional stability. He further described Egypt as “the country most capable [of confronting] extremist ideology amidst a region engulfed in conflicts and disputes.”

Cairo has also made efforts to present military assistance to Egypt as beneficial for U.S. interests in the region. On March 30, Egyptian Army Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Mahmoud Hegazy met with the Commander General of U.S. Army Central Michael Garrett to discuss military cooperation. A statement from the Egyptian military said that the meeting focused on the importance of continuing coordination and strengthening ties “in a way that serves the mutual interests [of both countries].” This rhetoric will certainly be echoed by el-Sissi during his Washington visit.

El-Sissi’s meeting with Trump also comes on the heels of two other major global meetings, both of which offered Cairo an opportunity to discuss Egypt’s counterterror vision ahead of el-Sissi’s visit with Trump.

On March 22, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson hosted a 68-member meeting of the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS in Washington. At the meeting, Foreign Minister Shoukry emphasized Egypt’s efforts to fight extremist ideologies through “religious moderate platforms.” In 2015, el-Sissi called for a “religious revolution” and urged Islamic scholars to engage in reforms that would help combat extremism.

Cairo has been battling militants in the Sinai since 2013; in late 2014, the militant group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis pledged loyalty to ISIS. Days later in Amman, Jordan, at the 28th Arab summit, el-Sissi called for a “comprehensive” approach to fighting terrorism in the Middle East that underlines the role religious institutions, particularly Egypt’s al-Azhar, can play in that effort.

Sissi’s visit also comes amid Trump’s proposed budget cuts, which would significantly reduce spending on U.S. foreign aid. However, the administration is unlikely to decrease foreign military financing to Egypt, which makes up the bulk of the $1.3 billion in annual assistance the United States gives to Egypt.

Still, Egypt may also use the visit and the surrounding security rhetoric to advocate for the renewal of cash flow financing (CFF), a perk allowing Egypt to buy U.S. defense equipment on credit, which the Obama administration ordered to be terminated by 2018. In the current budget climate, it appears unlikely a decision would be made to continue CFF in its current form post-2018, despite efforts by some U.S. lawmakers to push legislation to reverse the Obama-era decision.

Muslim Brotherhood

In the aftermath of the ouster of former President Mohamed Morsi in 2013, Egypt banned the Muslim Brotherhood and labeled the group a terrorist organization. While there has been much debate in Washington since Trump’s inauguration regarding the possible designation of the Brotherhood as a terrorist organization by the United States, the administration has reportedly put on hold an executive order on the Brotherhood, possibly following an internal State Department memo, which advised against such an action.

Still, Egypt will continue to push for Trump to make the designation. An Egyptian delegation that included several members of parliament visited the United States ahead of el-Sissi’s arrival with the goal of pressuring the U.S. administration and members of Congress to designate the Brotherhood a terrorist organization.

However, the administration is unlikely to follow through on such a step anytime soon because the Brotherhood is a global organization and labeling it a terrorist organization would impact U.S. policy in other countries. Brotherhood-affiliated political parties are major U.S. allies, including those in Jordan and Tunisia. Indeed, the Tunisian Islamist party Ennahda has played a key role in Tunisia’s transition toward democracy.

Economy

Egypt will also seek to promote its economic reform and attract U.S. investments. As part of its economic reform program, Egypt has adopted a flexible exchange rate, enacted a value-added tax and increased fuel prices.

In November 2016, Egypt signed a three-year $12 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that aimed to help the country achieve macroeconomic stability and promote inclusive growth. Egypt has also been negotiating funding agreements to fulfill its ambitious commitments in the IMF program with France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and other G8 member countries.

U.S. investments in Egypt are important as Cairo seeks to attract more foreign direct investment. Last week, Egyptian Minister of Investment and International Cooperation Sahar Nasr chaired a conference with the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt. Nasr highlighted new investment opportunities in the country, which included new legislation that aims to minimize obstacles to would-be investors.

At the conference, AmCham Egypt President Anis Aclimandos said he was optimistic that the United States would increase investment in Egypt. Notably, el-Sissi will be accompanied in Washington by representatives from AmCham Egypt and the U.S.-Egypt Business Council, who will meet with U.S. businessmen to explain Egypt’s economic reform plans.

It is also worth noting that Egyptian intelligence recently hired two public relations firms in Washington to boost the country’s image in the United States and highlight, among other things, Cairo’s economic development efforts.

Regional Matters

Regional challenges will be high on the agenda during the Trump and el-Sissi meeting—not least of which is Israeli-Palestinian peace. El-Sissi is among the Arab leaders in Jordan this week for the 28th Arab summit, a major focus of the summit being Palestinian statehood.

El-Sissi has sought to position Egypt as a leading regional actor on this issue. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met with el-Sissi in Cairo ahead of the Arab summit to discuss the U.S. administration’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian issue as well as Palestinian economic development and security. These issues were also discussed in Foreign Minister Shoukry’s meetings with Trump administration officials prior to the el-Sissi visit, who, according to the foreign ministry, were “keen to listen to the Egyptian perspective.”

Finally, el-Sissi is expected to discuss other critical regional issues, including the war in Syria, conflict in Yemen and instability in Libya. Egypt has worked to position itself as a regional leader on counterterrorism and a bastion of stability in a turbulent region. El-Sissi will likely present Cairo as a key U.S. partner in tackling regional instability.

Conclusion

There are certainly several topics that are not likely to be on the table for discussion. One of these is the imprisonment of U.S. citizen Aya Hegazy, who has been held in pretrial detention in Egypt for more than a year. The verdict in her case was recently postponed to April 16.

Other human rights issues or concerns are also unlikely to find a place on the agenda. And while it is worth noting that Egypt expressed dissatisfaction with the State Department’s recent 2016 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, Cairo linked its discontent to the previous administration, saying it “reflected the view of the former Obama administration which had always sought to tarnish the image of Egypt in any way.”

Deputy Foreign Minister for Human Rights Laila Bahaaeddin said the Egyptian government “decided not to make a lot of fuss in the media on a negative report which was issued by the outgoing administration” because Trump “has said he wants closer relations with Egypt.” Closer U.S.-Egypt ties in this context refer to strengthened U.S. support for Egypt’s national security interests, while issues of democratic governance and respect for human rights will be pushed aside.

Ultimately, we are unlikely to see any major developments come out of el-Sissi’s meeting with Trump. Rather, optics will dominate over substance.

The visit provides an important opportunity for the Egyptian government to take advantage of positive rhetoric from the White House regarding the U.S.-Egyptian partnership and to continue to push the idea of a “renewed” strategic relationship with this administration.

Elissa Miller is an assistant director at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

WHAT EGYPT’S EL-SISSI WANTS FROM TRUMP

 

Egypt President el-Sisi Says There is “No Doubt” that Donald Trump Would Make A Strong Leader
Image result for EL-SISI and trump

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi visits the White House to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump.

El-Sissi’s first visit to the White House is important for U.S.-Egypt relations. Both leaders have repeatedly expressed admiration for each other, and Cairo appears eager to push for a stronger bilateral relationship that it perceives will do more to benefit its interests than its strained relationship with the Obama administration.

Ahead of the visit, the White House released a statement praising the “positive momentum [Trump and el-Sissi] have built for the United States-Egypt relationship.” Cairo has also been vocal in expressing support for strategic U.S.-Egypt ties and enhanced cooperation under the Trump administration.

In addition to the overall strengthening of ties, el-Sissi likely has four major priorities for this visit: securing U.S. support for Egypt’s counterterror interests, pressuring the United States to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization, promoting Egypt’s economic reform program, and presenting Egypt as a leading regional power.

Security and Terrorism

Egypt presents itself as being on “the frontlines of the global war against terrorism” and extremism. That narrative drives much of the Egyptian rhetoric surrounding U.S. military assistance to Cairo.

04_03_Sisi_Trump_02Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in New Delhi in September 2016. Elissa Miller writes that el-Sisi’s visit comes amid Trump’s proposed budget cuts, which would significantly reduce spending on U.S. foreign aid. However, the administration is unlikely to cut foreign military financing to Egypt, which makes up the bulk of the $1.3 billion in annual assistance the United States gives to Egypt.CATHAL MCNAUGHTON/REUTERS

During a recent visit to Washington, meetings included those with Deputy National Security Advisor K. T. McFarland and Senior Director for Middle East policies on the National Security Council Derek Harvey. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry called for continued U.S. assistance for Egypt’s counterterror operations and efforts as crucial to maintaining regional stability. He further described Egypt as “the country most capable [of confronting] extremist ideology amidst a region engulfed in conflicts and disputes.”

Cairo has also made efforts to present military assistance to Egypt as beneficial for U.S. interests in the region. On March 30, Egyptian Army Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Mahmoud Hegazy met with the Commander General of U.S. Army Central Michael Garrett to discuss military cooperation. A statement from the Egyptian military said that the meeting focused on the importance of continuing coordination and strengthening ties “in a way that serves the mutual interests [of both countries].” This rhetoric will certainly be echoed by el-Sissi during his Washington visit.

El-Sissi’s meeting with Trump also comes on the heels of two other major global meetings, both of which offered Cairo an opportunity to discuss Egypt’s counterterror vision ahead of el-Sissi’s visit with Trump.

On March 22, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson hosted a 68-member meeting of the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS in Washington. At the meeting, Foreign Minister Shoukry emphasized Egypt’s efforts to fight extremist ideologies through “religious moderate platforms.” In 2015, el-Sissi called for a “religious revolution” and urged Islamic scholars to engage in reforms that would help combat extremism.

Cairo has been battling militants in the Sinai since 2013; in late 2014, the militant group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis pledged loyalty to ISIS. Days later in Amman, Jordan, at the 28th Arab summit, el-Sissi called for a “comprehensive” approach to fighting terrorism in the Middle East that underlines the role religious institutions, particularly Egypt’s al-Azhar, can play in that effort.

Sissi’s visit also comes amid Trump’s proposed budget cuts, which would significantly reduce spending on U.S. foreign aid. However, the administration is unlikely to decrease foreign military financing to Egypt, which makes up the bulk of the $1.3 billion in annual assistance the United States gives to Egypt.

Still, Egypt may also use the visit and the surrounding security rhetoric to advocate for the renewal of cash flow financing (CFF), a perk allowing Egypt to buy U.S. defense equipment on credit, which the Obama administration ordered to be terminated by 2018. In the current budget climate, it appears unlikely a decision would be made to continue CFF in its current form post-2018, despite efforts by some U.S. lawmakers to push legislation to reverse the Obama-era decision.

Muslim Brotherhood

In the aftermath of the ouster of former President Mohamed Morsi in 2013, Egypt banned the Muslim Brotherhood and labeled the group a terrorist organization. While there has been much debate in Washington since Trump’s inauguration regarding the possible designation of the Brotherhood as a terrorist organization by the United States, the administration has reportedly put on hold an executive order on the Brotherhood, possibly following an internal State Department memo, which advised against such an action.

Still, Egypt will continue to push for Trump to make the designation. An Egyptian delegation that included several members of parliament visited the United States ahead of el-Sissi’s arrival with the goal of pressuring the U.S. administration and members of Congress to designate the Brotherhood a terrorist organization.

However, the administration is unlikely to follow through on such a step anytime soon because the Brotherhood is a global organization and labeling it a terrorist organization would impact U.S. policy in other countries. Brotherhood-affiliated political parties are major U.S. allies, including those in Jordan and Tunisia. Indeed, the Tunisian Islamist party Ennahda has played a key role in Tunisia’s transition toward democracy.

Economy

Egypt will also seek to promote its economic reform and attract U.S. investments. As part of its economic reform program, Egypt has adopted a flexible exchange rate, enacted a value-added tax and increased fuel prices.

In November 2016, Egypt signed a three-year $12 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that aimed to help the country achieve macroeconomic stability and promote inclusive growth. Egypt has also been negotiating funding agreements to fulfill its ambitious commitments in the IMF program with France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and other G8 member countries.

U.S. investments in Egypt are important as Cairo seeks to attract more foreign direct investment. Last week, Egyptian Minister of Investment and International Cooperation Sahar Nasr chaired a conference with the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt. Nasr highlighted new investment opportunities in the country, which included new legislation that aims to minimize obstacles to would-be investors.

At the conference, AmCham Egypt President Anis Aclimandos said he was optimistic that the United States would increase investment in Egypt. Notably, el-Sissi will be accompanied in Washington by representatives from AmCham Egypt and the U.S.-Egypt Business Council, who will meet with U.S. businessmen to explain Egypt’s economic reform plans.

It is also worth noting that Egyptian intelligence recently hired two public relations firms in Washington to boost the country’s image in the United States and highlight, among other things, Cairo’s economic development efforts.

Regional Matters

Regional challenges will be high on the agenda during the Trump and el-Sissi meeting—not least of which is Israeli-Palestinian peace. El-Sissi is among the Arab leaders in Jordan this week for the 28th Arab summit, a major focus of the summit being Palestinian statehood.

El-Sissi has sought to position Egypt as a leading regional actor on this issue. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met with el-Sissi in Cairo ahead of the Arab summit to discuss the U.S. administration’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian issue as well as Palestinian economic development and security. These issues were also discussed in Foreign Minister Shoukry’s meetings with Trump administration officials prior to the el-Sissi visit, who, according to the foreign ministry, were “keen to listen to the Egyptian perspective.”

Finally, el-Sissi is expected to discuss other critical regional issues, including the war in Syria, conflict in Yemen and instability in Libya. Egypt has worked to position itself as a regional leader on counterterrorism and a bastion of stability in a turbulent region. El-Sissi will likely present Cairo as a key U.S. partner in tackling regional instability.

Conclusion

There are certainly several topics that are not likely to be on the table for discussion. One of these is the imprisonment of U.S. citizen Aya Hegazy, who has been held in pretrial detention in Egypt for more than a year. The verdict in her case was recently postponed to April 16.

Other human rights issues or concerns are also unlikely to find a place on the agenda. And while it is worth noting that Egypt expressed dissatisfaction with the State Department’s recent 2016 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, Cairo linked its discontent to the previous administration, saying it “reflected the view of the former Obama administration which had always sought to tarnish the image of Egypt in any way.”

Deputy Foreign Minister for Human Rights Laila Bahaaeddin said the Egyptian government “decided not to make a lot of fuss in the media on a negative report which was issued by the outgoing administration” because Trump “has said he wants closer relations with Egypt.” Closer U.S.-Egypt ties in this context refer to strengthened U.S. support for Egypt’s national security interests, while issues of democratic governance and respect for human rights will be pushed aside.

Ultimately, we are unlikely to see any major developments come out of el-Sissi’s meeting with Trump. Rather, optics will dominate over substance.

The visit provides an important opportunity for the Egyptian government to take advantage of positive rhetoric from the White House regarding the U.S.-Egyptian partnership and to continue to push the idea of a “renewed” strategic relationship with this administration.

Elissa Miller is an assistant director at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.

Egypt Boosts Navy As Part Of Red Sea Controlling Strategy

By Amr Emam,  

Over the past two years, Egypt spent bil­lions to upgrade its navy, buying helicopter carriers from France, frigates from Russia and subma­rines from Germany. Photo by AHMED XIV/Wikimedia

CAIRO, Egypt — By establishing a naval force in the Red Sea, Egypt aims for more than protecting navigation in the Suez Canal, a vital wa­terway for international trade, mili­tary experts said.

“The force will be the backbone of Egypt’s new Red Sea strategy,” former Assistant Defense Minis­ter Hossam Suweilam said. “There is a marked surge of unrest in the southern entrance to the Red Sea, which needs an aggressive policy.”

The new force utilizes recently acquired naval equipment, includ­ing a French-made multifunction helicopter carrier.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said the new force would help his country protect its coast. Defense Minister Sedki Sobhi said the force would help Egypt impose control on its territorial waters in the Red Sea.

Cash-strapped Egypt spent bil­lions of dollars to upgrade its navy over the past two years. It bought two helicopter carriers from France, frigates from Russia and subma­rines from Germany. Cairo does this for a purpose, military experts said.

In 2015, Egypt spent almost $8 billion to dig a parallel channel to shorten transit time in the Suez Ca­nal. It also dug tunnels under the canal to deliver water and ease the movement of people and goods to and from Sinai.

These huge investments are only part of Egypt’s vision for the Suez Canal region, one that cannot be implemented without proper secu­rity in the Red Sea, experts said.

Egypt wants to turn the banks of the canal into an investment mag­net where vast industrial zones, huge logistics areas and extensive service facilities are planned. Egypt plans to attract hundreds of bil­lions of dollars in investments to the region. In 2015, revenues from the Suez Canal totaled $5.2 bil­lion, which did a lot to buoy Egypt’s struggling economy.

Analysts in Cairo said Sisi does not squander the limited funds available at the central bank with a purpose in mind.

Last April 8, Sisi ordered Prime Minister Sherif Ismail to sign a mar­itime border demarcation agree­ment with Saudi Arabia. The deal includes the handover of two dis­puted Red Sea islands to Riyadh. Egyptians now debate whether the islands are Saudi.

Absent from the conversation, however, are the reasons Sisi insists to demarcate the maritime border with the Saudis. He has said Egypt cannot explore its territorial wa­ters for oil without defining its sea boundaries.

He mentioned a similar agree­ment with Greece and Cyprus. A few months after Egypt signed the agreement with both states, Italian state-owned petroleum company Eni announced the discovery of the East Mediterranean’s largest natu­ral gas field off Egypt’s coast.

There is a strong probability of Egypt’s territorial Red Sea waters containing wealth so huge that Sisi is ready to risk angering his people with the maritime border demarca­tion deal with Saudi Arabia.

“Such a potential wealth is badly in need of a military power to pro­tect it,” said Nasr Salem, a lecturer at Nasser Military Academy, the army’s strategic and military sci­ence institute. “We cannot leave the billions of dollars we spend on investments in the Red Sea without protection.”

Parliament is to debate the deal soon. Analysts expect that after deal approval, Egypt would offer concessions to international oil firms to explore Red Sea territorial waters.

Fear for these investments and potential wealth lies, meanwhile, more southward, near the coast of restive Yemen where the Houthi militia controls key port cities near the Bab el Mandeb strait, politi­cal experts said. The Houthis have threatened Red Sea navigation many times.

The establishment of the new Egyptian naval fleet comes after pro-Saudi forces in Yemen failed to capture the country’s port cities.

The fear in Egypt is that the Houthis can threaten traffic in the strait, which would deal an irre­versible blow to the Suez Canal.

Close to 4 million barrels of oil pass through the Bab el Mandeb strait en route to markets in Europe and the United States every day, most of which is moved through the Suez Canal, the U.S. Energy In­formation Administration said.

A disruption of traffic at the strait would be catastrophic to Egypt and the world.

“This is exactly why Egypt takes the security of this area very seri­ously,” said Mohamed Kamal, a political science professor at Cairo University. “Whoever controls the southern entrance to the Red Sea will control the Suez Canal and Egypt cannot leave this control in the hands of anybody else.”

This article originally appeared at The Arab Weekly.