3 Key Issues The African Union Has To Deal With At Its Ethiopia Summit

Choosing a new leader and preventing genocide are just a couple of the AU’s priorities.

Once a year, the heads of 54 African countries gather in the Ethiopian capital to hammer out solutions (or not) to the continent’s big issues.

The 28th African Union Summit opened on Monday in Addis Ababa, and the agenda is looking pretty full.

1. The Morocco Conundrum

After a 33-year absence, the only mainland country that is not part of the AU wants to rejoin. Morocco left what was then known as the Organization of African Unity (OAU) in 1984 in a dispute over the status of Western Sahara, a desert state the size of Colorado that has been the center of an independence struggle for several decades.

In Morocco’s eyes, Western Sahara is part of its territory. But an organization founded by the indigenous Sahrawi people, the Polisario Front, launched a guerrilla struggle in the early 1970s to demand that the area be recognized as an independent state, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). Supported by Algeria, the Polisario Front received the backing of a majority of OAU members in a vote in 1984 on its claim of territorial integrity in Western Sahara, prompting Morocco to quit the bloc. A diplomatic stalemate has ensued in the region, despite calls by the AU and the U.N. for a referendum. Tensions were reignited in 2016 when former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon referred to the region as under “occupation,” a comment decried by Moroccan leaders and people who took to the streets to protest.

Morocco submitted its application to rejoin the AU in September 2016, and the country’s foreign minister said in January that it has the support of the majority of the bloc’s members. But the bid could still face resistance from some of Africa’s major powers. According to AFP reports on Monday, 12 countries including Nigeria, South Africa and Algeria, have requested a legal opinion from the AU as to whether Morocco could be readmitted while some members believe it is be occupying the territory of another member state—i.e. the SADR.

Morocco Western Sahara protestMoroccan protesters hold placards during a demonstration against comments by Ban Ki-moon on Western Sahara in Rabat, on March 13, 2016. Morocco asserts that Western Sahara is part of its territory, though Ban referred to it as under “occupation.”FADEL SENNA/AFP/GETTY

2. Preventing Genocide in South Sudan

The situation in South Sudan is perhaps the most urgent issue in sub-Saharan Africa. Writing in Newsweek in December 2016, former U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon said that the risk of “mass atrocities” in South Sudan—which has been mired in civil war on and off since December 2013—“escalating into possible genocide is all too real.”

Despite the leaders of the opposing factions—President Salva Kiir and ex-vice-president Riek Machar—signing a peace agreement in August 2015, South Sudan continues to be convulsed by violence. A fresh outbreak of fighting in July 2016 has led to tens of thousands of people fleeing the country, and ethnic tensions have reportedly become a significant factor in the conflict: Kiir is a member of the majority Dinka, while Machar comes from the Nuer ethnic minority. Experts have warned of a second Rwanda, referring to that country’s ethnic genocide in 1994, in which at least 800,000 members of the Tutsi minority and moderate members of the Hutu majority died at the hands of Hutu extremists.

In a joint emailed statement on Sunday, the AU, U.N. and regional body the Intergovernmental Authority on Development “expressed their deep concerns over the continuing spread of fighting, and risk of inter-communal violence escalating into mass atrocities, and the dire humanitarian situation in South Sudan.” But with the international community so far failing to mitigate the crisis—the U.N. Security Council, for example, has consistently failed to impose an arms embargo on the country—the AU will have to come up with more than just words in order to be seen as making real progress in South Sudan.

South Sudan soldiersSouth Sudanese government soldiers celebrate while standing in trenches in Lelo, outside Malakal, South Sudan, October 16. Experts have warned of the risk of genocide in the country, where civil conflict has raged since December 2013.ALBERT GONZALEZ FARRAN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

3. Uniting Around a New Leader

The summit marks the end of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s tenure as head of the AU Commission. Five candidates are competing to replace Dlamini-Zuma, whose term has ended; she is likely to run later this year to succeed her former husband, Jacob Zuma, as leader of South Africa’s governing African National Congress.

The vote on the next AU leader could well expose divisions in the organization. Three of the five candidates—Chad’s foreign minister Moussa Faki Mahamat, Kenyan foreign minister Amina Mohamed, and Abdoulaye Bathily of Senegal—are the most likely contenders, but voting could be complicated by a tradition that means the post tends to rotate between candidates from Anglophone and Francophone countries. If tradition is followed, Mahamat and Bathily would have an advantage—even though Kenya has been vocal in campaigning for votes for Mohamed.

In order to win, a candidate requires two-thirds of the votes, and a deadlock followed by political wrangling is a real possibility. That happened in 2012: Dlamini-Zuma was only elected in a second ballot after the first produced a stalemate and led to the incumbent having his term extended by six months.

 

Why is Morocco Returning to African Union?

 

Two countries are making determined efforts to return to Africa. One is, in fact, an African country. Morocco left the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) 32 years ago over the admission of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) to the continental body.

Morocco considers SADR (Western Sahara), until 1976 a Spanish colony, one of its provinces.

That quarrel has not ended, but it appears Morocco sees it in its best interest to return to the fold. There are several probable reasons for this change.

Although the African Union (AU) and some other countries recognise SADR, the reality on the ground has remained unchanged for the past three decades. SADR controls about 25% of the territory while Morocco controls the rest.

The political and diplomatic situation is a stalemate, but one in which Morocco has a stronger hand. So there is probably no strong reason for Morocco to remain in the cold.

Besides, staying out of the African Union isolates Morocco from a growing market. Africa’s economies are growing and its people are increasingly earning higher incomes.

And with this comes a more visible and bigger role in international affairs. So there are economic and diplomatic benefits to be gained from closer engagement.

To show that they mean business and want to be actively involved with the rest of Africa, Morocco is not going about its return the old-fashioned way – sending diplomatic feelers or envoys to make its case. They are going about it in a businesslike manner, with business proposals and economic projects.

The king, no less, is visiting East Africa, a region of the continent where Morocco hardly has a presence. But he is not calling on the leaders and making the usual nice statements about cherished ties and brotherhood, and so on.

In fact on his just ended visit to Rwanda, he made no speeches. Perhaps that is royal protocol. Or it was not necessary because he came armed with many agreements that made a loud enough statement.

It is not the number of agreements alone that is significant, but the type as well. On such state visits, it is common for agreements to be signed between states. They are usually of a general nature about cooperation and are rarely implemented.

This time they are more specific and wide ranging, covering agriculture, finance, housing, manufacturing, energy, health and education, among others.

It is likely similar agreements will be signed in Tanzania and Ethiopia where the king and his large delegation will be next.

The Moroccans’ current visit to East Africa marks a serious intent to enter the region and widen their interests in Africa. Until recently the Arab north of Africa has had very little to do in this region.

Their interests have been mainly in West Africa. Only Gadaffi’s Libya, perhaps because of its leader’s interest in becoming the de facto leader of Africa, had financial and commercial interests in the region. Lately Egypt has been making trade inroads. Now Morocco is following suit.

From all this, it is clear is that Morocco is determined to return, and indeed has already made the necessary requests to do so.

The other country making a diplomatic comeback in Africa is Israel. The majority of African countries broke relations with Israel in 1973 following the Yom Kippur war. For many it was an expression of solidarity with Egypt and the Palestinians.

What did Africa reap from severing ties with Israel? Not much. In fact the continent suffered heavily from a petrol crisis fuelled by OPEC immediately after the 1973 war.

In terms of development cooperation, the Arabs did not fill the gap left by the Israelis. Yes, there were some loans and grants from a number of Arab Development Banks, but little else.

Instead there was a proliferation of Islamic NGOs and missionary organisations in much of Africa. Because these groups represented different factions within Islam, they brought their differences and created divisions within African Muslims. A more dangerous result was radicalisation of Muslims which has led many of them into joining terrorist organisations.

All along, however, discreet relations between some African countries and Israel remained. In recent times Israel and African countries have been slowly re-engaging. It is perhaps time these contacts came into the open.

Why now and what benefits are there for Africans? Israel continues to be a leader in matters of security, technology and agriculture. Africa needs this expertise.

For the Israelis too, improved relations with Africa are beneficial both economically and diplomatically. In any case, with the political mess in the Middle East, particularly the weakening of Syria and Iraq, the threat to Israel will likely take on another form that requires a different kind of response. Yes, the existential threat remains, but in different configurations.

So two countries are returning to Africa, and this is a reflection of the changing times. Solutions to many conflicts are increasingly to be found in establishing common ground than in maintaining a stand-off.

Collaboration is crucial because the alternative leads only to division and instability. Finally realpolitik and not sentiment is informing diplomatic decisions.

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