EFP – Page 18 – Gondaronline.com

Why is Ethiopia in a state of emergency?

EPRDF’s list of banned activities for Ethiopians

(CNN)Ethiopia has imposed severe regulations under a new six-month “state of emergency” as it faces unprecedented levels of unrest across the country, a first in the government’s 25-year rule.

The government says the state of emergency was put in place to prevent further loss of life and property, but many activists worry the new rules serve as a way to limit criticism and allow the government to use a heavy-handed approach to opposition.

The measures, announced October 16, cut across rights of communication and assembly, and have been criticized by human rights activists. Amnesty International said they “are so broad they threaten basic human rights that must not be curtailed.”

In the last month, 1,000 people have been arrested, said a mayor of a town close to Addis Ababa, according to state-affiliated media outlet FBC.

Unrest began in Ethiopia as two of the country’s largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara, demonstrated against sustained marginalization.

The tension hit a peak earlier this month, when at least 52 people were killed in a stampede at a religious festival in the Oromo-dominated area of Bishoftu. The government disputed opposition reports that police fired live rounds into the crowd, saying all deaths stemmed from a stampede caused by “troublemakers.”

These are some things that are now illegal in Ethiopia:

Posting on social media

The new rules ban the use of social media, mobile devices or any means of communication to send messages the government deems will “create chaos, suspicion or discord among people.”

While the Internet and social media have often been blocked across the country throughout the unrest, people within Oromia have used social media during the protests to share videos and coordinate activities, and discuss new information.

Crossing wrists above one’s head

In what has become a symbol of solidarity with the Oromo people, crossing wrists above one’s head as if in handcuffs is now banned in the country.

The symbol became internationally recognizable after Olympic silver medalist Feyisa Lilesa made the gesture while crossing the finish line at the Rio Olympics.

Diplomatic travel

Diplomats are prohibited from traveling more than 40 kilometers outside the capital Addis Ababa without authorization.

Addis Ababa is home to many international organizations, including the African Union, United Nations offices and embassies.

Curfew

After a series of attacks on foreign-owned firms, including a textile firm and a cement factory, the government has enforced a 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew around “economic pillars, infrastructural projects and investments.”

Ethiopia has touted itself as a site of foreign investment and boasted of double-digit economic growth, growth that advocates say has not spread equally across the population.

Watching ‘terrorist media’

Foreign-based television stations, Ethiopia Satellite Television and Oromia Media Network, were forbidden after being defined by the government as “terrorist organizations.”

Ethiopia ranks low on the World Press Freedom Index (at 142 out of 180 nations) for “using terrorism charges to silence the media.”

“Government continually uses the ‘terrorism’ narrative to stifle independent voices, as many of the dozens of journalists, opposition politicians, and activists convicted under the anti-terrorism law can attest to,” said Felix Horne Ethiopia, senior researcher at Human Rights Watch. “Too often those that are associated with the ‘opposition’ are labeled as ‘terrorists.'”

‘Ethiopia must end crackdown on peaceful opponents’ – US envoy to UN

Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban

ETHIOPIA

Samantha Power, the United States ambassador to the United Nations has called on the Ethiopian government to end the crackdown on peaceful opponents.

She also called for an end to mass arrests citing particularly the rearresting of Blen Mesfin, a member of the opposition who was first detained in April last year.

Mrs Powers took to her twitter handle to make the call, adding that the government was not going to succeed with the clampdown because it was sel defeating. She joins several western diplomats who have expressed worry about the use of repression by the government under new curfew rules.

According to humanrights.gov, Blen Mesfin was arrested along with Meron Alemayehu, and Nigist Wondifraw. The three were among a number of opposition party members and others arrested and charged with inciting violence in Addis Ababa in April 2015.

#Ethiopia must end crckdwn on peaceful oppo. Mass arrests, incl rearresting Blen Mesfin, show cont’d backslide on rts & are self-defeating. pic.twitter.com/C89aNlaSgD

— Samantha Power (@AmbassadorPower) October 18, 2016

Ethiopia is currently under a 6 month state of emergency where anti government protests are banned. There have bee restriction on movement and on the use of social media and some conventional media.

Blen, Meron, and Nigist are said to be leading members of Ethiopia’s Blue Party, which advocates peacefully for democratic principles and has faced numerous obstacles in exercising freedom of association and assembly both in the build-up to May 24 parliamentary elections, and thereafter.

All three were arrested in Addis Ababa in the days following the April 22 protests and charged with inciting violence at the rally. Alemayehu and Wondifraw were released from prison in November 2015 while Mesfin is still imprisoned.

Eprdf limits foreign diplomats’ movements

New restrictions are part of a six-month state of emergency declared by the government eight days ago.

Ethiopia has also banned access to foreign-based opposition media [Tiksa Negeri/Reuters]

Ethiopia has restricted foreign diplomats’ travel, in new provisions of a state of emergency as part of its response to an unprecedented wave of anti-government protests.

Inside Story – What’s fuelling protests in Ethiopia?

New restrictions published in local media state that foreign diplomats are forbidden from travelling more than 40km outside the capital, Addis Ababa, “for their own security”.

“This is a state of emergency and we expect repressive measures,” a Western diplomat told AFP news agency on condition of anonymity on Monday.

OPINION: The ‘Ethiopia rising’ narrative and the Oromo protests

“But we also expect an opening of the political space for the opposition as stated by the president in front of the parliament. This is not what seems to be happening,” the diplomat added.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is following developments in Ethiopia “with concern”, his spokesman said on Monday.

The UN chief urged Ethiopian authorities to uphold human rights and called for calm and “inclusive dialogue to resolve all grievances.”

Internet access cut

The new measures include a 6pm to 6am curfew around factories, farms and government institutions, which have come under attack from protesters in recent weeks.

They also include a 50km “red zone” adjacent to the country’s borders in which it is illegal to carry firearms. The areas around several key roads have also been declared red zones.

Why is Ethiopia under a state of emergency?

Political parties are “banned from giving press statements that incite violence” and religious leaders are forbidden from making political statements.

Security forces are banned from going on holiday or resigning their jobs.

The measures also make it illegal to watch television stations set up by the diaspora ,such as Ethiopian Satellite Television (ESAT) and the US-based Oromia Media Network (OMN).

Posting links from these organisations’ websites onto social media has also been declared a “criminal activity”.

Cellphone internet access has been cut for almost three weeks in most parts of the country, including the capital.

“There is a pressing concern that the Ethiopian authorities will need even less of a pretext to prevent foreign journalists from doing their work during the state of emergency,” said Will Davison, head of the Foreign Press Association, an informal gathering of foreign correspondents in Ethiopia.

The death toll from unrest and clashes between police and demonstrators over the past year or more runs into several hundred, according to opposition and rights group estimates. At least 500 people have been killed by security forces since anti-government protests began in November, New York-based Human Rights Watch group said in August.

The government says such figures are inflated and has denied that violence from the security forces is systemic. In August, it rejected a United Nations request to send in observers, saying it alone was responsible for the security of its citizens.

The anti-government demonstrations started in November among the Oromo, Ethiopia’s biggest ethnic group, and later spread to the Amhara, the second most populous group.

Though they initially began over land rights, they later broadened into calls for more political, economic and cultural rights.

Both groups say that a multi-ethnic ruling coalition and the security forces are dominated by the Tigray ethnic group, which makes up only about 6 percent of the population.

The government, though, blames rebel groups and foreign-based dissidents for stoking the violence.

Abdirahman Mahdi: ‘Ethiopia is now boiling’ – Talk to Al Jazeera

Source: News Agencies

‘Africa Rising’? ‘Africa Reeling’ May Be More Fitting Now

A protest in Bishoftu, Ethiopia, on Oct. 2. No place exposes the cracks in the narrative of Africa’s rising better than Ethiopia, which is one of the continent’s fastest-developing but most repressive nations.

NAIROBI, Kenya — For decades Africa was eager for a new narrative, and in recent years it got a snappy one.

The Economist published a cover story titled “Africa Rising.” A Texas business school professor published a book called “Africa Rising.” And in 2011, The Wall Street Journal ran a series of articles about economic growth on the continent, and guess what that series was called?

“Africa Rising.”

The rise seemed obvious: You could simply stroll around Nairobi, Kenya’s capital, or many other African capitals, and behold new shopping malls, new hotels, new solar-powered streetlights, sometimes even new Domino’s pizzerias, all buoyed by what appeared to be high economic growth rates sweeping the continent.

For so long Africa had been associated with despair and doom, and now the quality of life for many Africans was improving. Hundreds of thousands of Rwandans were getting clean water for the first time. In Kenya, enrollment in public universities more than doubled from 2007 to 2012. In many countries, life expectancy was increasing, infant mortality decreasing.

But in recent months, as turmoil has spread across the continent, and the red-hot economic growth has cooled, this optimistic narrative has taken a hit. Some analysts are now questioning how profound the growth actually was.

“Nothing has changed on the governance front, nothing has changed structurally,” said Grieve Chelwa, a Zambian economist who is a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard.

“Africa rising was really good for some crackpot dictators,” he added. “But in some ways, it was a myth.”

No place exposes the cracks in the “Africa rising” narrative better than Ethiopia, which had been one of the fastest risers.

Ethiopia is now in flames. Hundreds have been killed during protests that have convulsed the country.

The government, whose stranglehold on the country is so complete that not a single opposition politician sits in the 547-seat Parliament, recently took the drastic step of imposing a state of emergency.

Many of the Ethiopia’s new engines of growth — sugar factories, textile mills, foreign-owned flower farms — now lie in ashes, burned down in a fury of anti-government rage.

At the same time, a report by the McKinsey Global Institute, an arm of the consulting firm McKinsey & Company, just listed Ethiopia as the fastest growing economy on the continent from 2010 to 2015. The Democratic Republic of Congo, which is also rapidly sliding toward chaos — again, was second.

Political turmoil on the one hand, rosy economic prospects on the other. Can both be true?

“It comes down to how sustained the turmoil is,” said Acha Leke, a senior partner at McKinsey.

In Ethiopia’s case, the unrest appears to be just beginning. Videos show demonstrations of hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians chanting antigovernment slogans, giving a sense of the depth of discontent. The protesters hail from Ethiopia’s two largest ethnic groups, a population of more than 60 million, leading many analysts to predict that this is no passing fad.

It seems the continent as a whole is heading into a tough period. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, faces its gravest economic crisis in years because of low oil prices. At the same time, it is trying to fight off Boko Haram, one of the most bloodthirsty insurgent groups on the planet.

South Africa, the continent’s most developed nation, has been wracked by waves of unrest. Troops with assault rifles stomp around college campuses, trying to quell student protests. The country’s currency, the rand, hovers near a record low.

South Sudan, which topped The Economist’s list in 2013 of the world’s fastest-growing economies, is now a killing field, the site of one of Africa’s worst civil wars.

Mr. Leke, one of the authors of the McKinsey report, says that political turbulence can drag down any economy, and that the growth of recent years has not been shared among the people nearly as widely as it could have been. According to a recent report by the African Development Bank, unemployment in sub-Saharan Africa remains close to 50 percent and is a “threat to social cohesion.”

As Mr. Leke said, “You can’t eat growth.”

Still, he says, there have been fundamental — and positive — changes on the continent, like increases in disposable income for many African consumers.

Mr. Chelwa, the Zambian economist, has a different view. The fundamentals of African economies have not changed nearly as much as the “Africa rising” narrative implied, he said, with Africa still relying too heavily on the export of raw materials and not enough on industry.

“In Zambia, we import pencils,” he said.

He also points out that some of the fastest-growing economies, like Ethiopia, Angola and Rwanda, are among the most repressive. These governments can move ahead with big infrastructure projects that help drive growth, but at the same time, they leave out many people, creating dangerous resentments.

In Ethiopia, that resentment seems to be growing by the day.

The trouble started last year when members of Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, the Oromo, began protesting government land policies. Soon Ethiopia’s second largest ethnic group, the Amhara, joined in, and the protests have now hardened into calls to overthrow the government, which is led by a small ethnic minority.

If you track the news coming out of Ethiopia, you would not be a fool to think it is two totally different countries. One day, there is a triumphant picture of a new electric train, with Chinese conductors standing next to shiny carriages (China remains a huge investor in Ethiopia.) The next, there are grisly images of dead bodies that witnesses said were people gunned down by police.

Several witnesses said the security forces might be beginning to split, with some officers taking off their uniforms and joining the protests.

The most recent economic data shows Africa’s growth slowing because of political instability and a global slump in commodity prices. Morten Jerven, a Norwegian economic historian who has studied statistics from across Africa, argues that the growth was never as robust as had been believed.

He said that the economic indicators for many African economies in the 1990s and early 2000s were inaccurate, and that the economic progress in the last five to 10 years that appeared to have been sudden was, in fact, gradual.

In other cases, Mr. Jerven said, African governments made bold economic assumptions or simply used fake numbers to make themselves look good. “The narrative had been too rosy,” he said.

Africa Yearning or Africa Struggling might be a more apt characterization, but neither of these is especially new. Whatever narrative emerges should include what Mr. Chelwa calls the continent’s “ghastly inequality,” and the sharp increase in the number of people who are now better equipped with technology and information and are demanding more from their governments.

Of course, it is difficult to apply a sweeping narrative to all 54 countries in Africa, where analysts agree that the picture is mixed. For instance, Rwanda remains stable with new businesses and floods of tourists while its neighbor, Burundi, teeters on the edge of chaos.

Some of the same economic factors that investors cite as grounds for optimism, like Africa’s growing cities, cut both ways. According to Mr. Jerven, rapid urbanization in Africa often leads to sprawling slums, low wages and legions of disenfranchised youth.

“All the economic variables for turmoil are there,” he said.

Progress in Ethiopia can come only from unity, not ethnic rivalry

Demonstrators chant slogans while flashing the Oromo protest gesture during Irreecha, the thanksgiving festival of the Oromo people, in Bishoftu town, Oromia region, Ethiopia, on Oct. 2. (Tiksa Negeri/Reuters)

The Washington Post

The October 11 World article “Ethiopia imposes state of emergency amid unrest” highlighted the widespread and proactive dissent that the undemocratic government is facing and the desperate measures it is taking. The situation is a consequence of the ruling party’s 25 years of dominance and its brutal suppression of human rights and political opposition.Every segment of Ethiopian society, regardless of ethnic affiliation, has been victimized by the government’s unfair and misguided policies. The people of Ethiopia, therefore, in unison, are saying enough to a quarter-century of abuse. That is the reason there are active opposition movements throughout the country. This should not overshadow, however, the destructive presence of secessionist groups and liberation fronts that will further threaten Ethiopia’s unity and stability. Such groups and their agendas will add only unmanageable chaos to the situation.

The current popular movement can become effective only if it is channeled through a unifying, not a separatist, leadership. The people of Ethiopia are demanding that type of leadership to bring a sustainable, democratic change to their nation. Promoting and fighting for the interests of a single ethnic group will never be the solution for Ethiopia’s persistent political problems. Unity is the key to establishing freedom, equality and justice.

Tewodros Abebe, Accokeek

Where Does Religion Come From?

If we were to ask a priest where religion originated, his response would most likely be rooted in his theology. The same would hold true for a rabbi, imam, yogi and so forth. We believe that the roots of our personal faith provide an answer to questions of creation. As Arthur Schopenhauer put it, “Everyone takes the limits of his own vision for the limits of the world.”

Yet we often associate spiritual practices with limitlessness, similarly to how we assume that a ‘soul’ resides inside our flesh until it’s released. Death, in fact, has often been regarded as a prime suspect hovering around at the foundation of religion. The rituals and beliefs of an afterlife provide an antidote to requiring too much responsibility during this one.

This is potentially a relatively recent development. Religious historian Karen Armstrong also assumes the culprit to be death, though perhaps not in a way that we’d expect. In her latest book, Fields of Blood: Religion and the History of Violence in the World, she writes,

Much of what we now call ‘religion’ was originally rooted in an acknowledgement of the tragic fact that life depended on the destruction of other creatures; rituals were addressed to helping human beings face up to this insoluble dilemma.

It is interesting to note that this dilemma developed due to the murdering of our prey, not other human beings. As our ancestors evolved ethics in growing societies, living in larger and more diverse groups, our paradoxes could not be veiled. While we created bonds by helping our families and friends we also regularly took the lives of other animals, many of whom, in their own ways, were doing the same.

How could this bipedal animal that had gained an advantage through the development of a neocortex grapple with the realization that as much as they craved security in an uncertain world, they also enjoyed the act of eating other sentient life? That it is a biological inheritance is unquestionable. Yet another question persisted: how could one hand help create life while the other so frequently took it?

Remember the crude instruments these hunters used to kill. There was no ease of gunpowder or hunting parks for wealthy tourists. As Armstrong notes, ancient arrows could barely pierce skin. It would take the poison dabbed onto the tip hours to be effective, during which time the hunters tracked and waited. It appears it is that moment that this thing we now call religion was born.

As the animal lay dying, the hunters would gather around it, stroking its head and singing songs. When it cried out in pain, they cried to empathize. They recognized the cycles of life as a sacrifice helping them live their own. Our ancestors knew they were part of a process, not separate from it. Ritual was born.

I would never claim that life was easier at any moment other than now; I’m not a romantic of bygone eras. As Armstrong writes, early humans liked the hunt. Many continue that trend today. It’s as much part of our DNA as are the emotions and ideologies we’ve developed to help us cope with the fact that we, like those animals, are all going to die.

But the modern disconnection from the cycles of the natural world is disconcerting. When religion is predominantly presented as a building you go to or a specific time of year that needs recognition—and that only involves one species—something special is lost

Armstrong argues throughout her book that our understanding of what we now call ‘religion’ is a relatively modern invention, fostered by secular advancements in Europe and America over the last 200 hundred years. And while I’m personally a fan of such advancements, I understand her point: there was no separate thing called ‘religion’ teased apart from daily life. The cosmic and mundane spun together.

It’s hard to imagine this connection when your meat is shrink-wrapped and boneless. It’s even harder to comprehend in a park where you’re guaranteed bounty simply by standing a hundred yards away and pulling a trigger. This isn’t an argument about skill or convenience. It’s about empathy, an emotion lacking when we’re so far removed from our origins.

In his classic work on the topic, Patterns in Comparative Religion, Mircea Eliade wrote,

What I think more useful than the classifying of myths and seeking for their possible ‘origins,’ is the study of their structure and the part they play in the spiritual experience of primitive man.

Creation stories are essential: they ground us. Knowing where a tradition arises helps us trace the twists and turns our ideologies have taken over the millennia. Sometimes this is good; we all know the biblical, quranic and other theological passages regarding slavery and the subjugation of women that (should) play no role in our world today. We’ve evolved, for the most part, and that’s a positive development.

But sometimes old wisdom has value. Our ancestors understood that to take something meant to give something back. Rituals, odd as some may seem today, were attempts at doing so. This is a direct contradiction to the free market, where humans are numbers crunched for efficiency and value to consistently cut costs and increase profits.

I might be a fan of secularism and would never argue that policy be derived from texts, but the complete disconnection from our spiritual practices in governance and society is equally dangerous. Armstrong argues this throughout her book. While I don’t agree with all of her points—I do believe that religion is culpable for much of the pain we experience today, not just power grabs and policies—on this point regarding the origins of the religious, we might consider paying closer attention if we want to understand the spiritual experience of modern man.

Image: ArtHeart/shutterstock.com

For more Bigthink

EU chief tasks Ethiopian PM to initiate inclusive political dialogue quickly

Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban with EUROPEAN UNION EXTERNAL ACTION

ETHIOPIA

The High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, has tasked the Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn to respect democratic principles and civil rights in the country.

Mogherini, who is also Vice-President of the European Commission said there was the need to initiate an inclusive political dialogue within the shortest possible time. The dialogue ‘‘will require space, not restriction,” an EU statement said.

She further underlined the need for transparency and determined engagement by the government to respond to the grievances of the population. The EU said it expected the opening up of the democratic space, and respect of fundamental freedoms.

The two leaders, spoke in a phone call, where they discussed developments in the country – particularly the recently imposed six-month state of emergency.

The EU chief expressed concern over the curfew imposed on October 9 and its possible effect on democratic principles and civil rights of citizens. The Prime Minister on his part assured that the state of emergency will not breach human rights protected by the Ethiopian constitution.

The PM had earlier this week assured that plans were underway for electoral reforms and the EU further urged that necessary political reforms are conducted to achieve this goal.

Mogherini also emphasized that talks between the government and opposition if done expeditiously will provide an inclusive economy with benefits for all, notably the youth.

Under the Radar: Foreign investors under attack in Ethiopia

By Jeremy Luedi

Mounting violence in Ethiopia has seen over 500 killed, as protests against the government’s economic and human rights policies continues. The tensions at the heart of the crisis are systemic ones, yet what makes the violence particularly worrisome is that foreign investors have become prominent targets. Foreign businesses are being systematically attacked in protest of the government’s development-centric approach, with protesters citing land grabs and unfair competition as key issues.

Foreign investors under attack

Government estimates claim that around 40,000 workers at foreign companies have been affected by the disruptions; as cement, textile, flower, and agribusiness firms have been attacked. Popular sentiments that the benefits of growth are not being felt by all, combined with worries about foreign goods undercutting local producers has made Ethiopia a verydangerous investment locale.

In recent weeks, eleven factories have been burned, and 90% of flower farms between Ziwag and Hawassa, in Oromia have been attacked. This has already led to one American flower firm pulling out of the country. Similarly, the Dutch owned, 2,000 worker, fruit farm of Africa Juice BV was set alight in September, with other Dutch and Israeli firms also attacked.

Moreover, Angela Merkel is in Ethiopia to discuss issues of trade and migration, and has expressed concerns about German interests in the country, as Germany constitutes one Ethiopia largest export destinations. Specifically, Germany consumes 30% of Ethiopia coffee production – a major cash crop and source of foreign currency. These exports could be threatened as unrest in agricultural areas continues, and protesting farmers continue to hinder the movement of goods to the capital.

Add to this attacks on Turkish textile factories in Sebeta and on holiday lodges at Lake Langano, and Ethiopia’s plight becomes even direr.

Anuradha Mittal, executive director of the Oakland Institute sums up the state of affairs in Ethiopia:

“If I am a foreign investor, I look for opportunities. I understand that there are risks but in the face of this growing unrest where foreign companies have been targets, given all that has happened in terms of displacement of people and their lands given away to foreign investors, it would be astute to not go into a country like that.”

Ethiopia’s uneven response hurts investor confidence

Alongside the unrest, the government’s response has only further unsettled foreign investors, as a whole week of silence followed the October 2nd uptick in violence, with the government only belatedly issuing a state of emergency. This occurred after the country’s state-run internet service was shut off for two days in August to disrupt protests. This move only further damaged investor confidence, and mainly hurt businesses, not protesters. In a country where a third of the population lives on less than $1.90 per day, most protesters do not have internet access, as support for the movement is largely located in rural areas. Shutting off the internet only further compromised the position of foreign companies in Ethiopia.

Despite the delay, communications minister Getachew Reda highlighted the impact on business as part of the reason for the government’s October 9th state of emergency declaration. “The kinds of threats we are facing, the kind of attacks that are now targeting civilians, targeting civilian infrastructure, targeting investment cannot be handled through ordinary law enforcement procedures” noted Reda. This echoes statements by PM Hailemariam Desalegn, who has also warned of the danger to the country’s infrastructure projects, projects such as the newly unveiled $3.4 billion, Chinese backed, railway from Addis Ababa to Djibouti.

These projects, alongside foreign businesses are prime targets as protesters are angered about the focus given to development over human rights, and the favouritism shown to the capital, whose growth is leaving the rest of the, largely agrarian, country behind. The protests began in November 2015, in response to plans to expand the capital, plans which were later abandoned, yet which hit a nerve among a population angered about land grabs and inequality.

Likely inspired by the success of the Chinese Communist Party, Ethiopia has sought to strongly push development, in the hope that growth will distract from the country’s human rights abuses. Unfortunately for the government, Ethiopia does not have Beijing’s clout or hard power, and faces are far more divided and diverse country.

Unsurprisingly, the government has sought to blame foreign influences on the the unrest, seeking to claim the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) is behind what is clearly a grassroots movement. To this end Ethiopia haspicked a fight with Egypt – claiming that Cairo is aiding the OLF – something which Egypt denies. The two countries are already at odds over Ethiopia’s plans to construct the 6,000 MW New Renaissance Dam on the Nile, which would severely impact downstream water resources in the Sudans and Egypt.

Throw in the obligatory accusation to Eritrea as well and this sloppy reaction is par for the course for the Ethiopian government.

This ham-fisted and belated response from the government only further undermines Ethiopia’s image in investment circles. This is especially unfortunate given that Ethiopia had, until recently, been a regional darling, citing double-digit growth and earning the moniker of ‘Africa’s Lion’. These days are gone as Ethiopia’s growth prospects have seen a significant drop, as domestic unrest grows, commodity prices have sunk, and regional growth slows.

This problem is here to stay

The problem for investors going forward is that the current unrest is based on longstanding, systemic problems at the heart of the Ethiopian state. While last week saw the imposition of Ethiopia’s first state of emergency in 25 years, this state of affairs has direct links to the last state of emergency a quarter of a century ago. In 1991, the historically dominant Amhara ethnic group was ousted from power by the Tigrayans, a group that comprises only six percent of the population. In the last 25 years, the Tigrayans have solidified their hold on the government, resulting in a state of affairs in which the Oromo and Amhara – sixty percent of Ethiopia’s nearly 100 million people – are underrepresented and marginalized.

Consequently, the economic focus on the capital and its pet development projects is seen as further favouritism towards the ruling Tigrayan governing elite who comprise the main governing party – Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) – which focuses on urban centres, and neglects the countryside.

This explains why the protests are centered in Oromia, yet it also warns of further escalation. Oromia produces much of Ethiopia’s food, and any disruption there could have serious impacts on national food security. Up to 18 million Ethiopians rely on food handouts, and unrest in Oromia threatens not only domestic food production, but attacks on foreign agribusiness also deprive the government of the foreign reserves needed to purchase additional food.

To make matters worse, Ethiopia has suffered from severe El-Nino related drought since September 2015. The timing of the drought and the first protests in November is likely no mere coincidence. While so far the government has been able to respond to the drought, unrest in Oromia could be the tipping point that disrupts national food distribution. If events do take a turn for the worse, Ethiopia is likely to find little foreign assistance, as donor fatigue has only increased in recent years. The international community is already distracted by Syria and other humanitarian issues, and Ethiopia’s drought has largely gone unnoticed.

The EPRDF was created out of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which took control in 1991 from the Derg regime. The Derg used famine as a weapon against the TPLF and other restive elements, leading to the infamous 1983-1985 famine. This famine in turn undermined the Derg regime and led to its downfall. The current regime is well aware of the risks of famine, which will likely result in a heavy-handed response to quell unrest and prevent wider instability. The problem is that this could easily back-fire as economic issues reignite lingering ethnic tensions, plunging Ethiopia into greater civil unrest.

Under the Radar uncovers political risk events around the world overlooked by mainstream media. By detecting hidden risks, we keep you ahead of the pack and ready for new opportunities.

Under the Radar is written by Jeremy Luedi.

Under the Radar: Foreign investors under attack in Ethiopia

By Jeremy Luedi

Foreign investors under attack

Add to this attacks on Turkish textile factories in Sebeta and on holiday lodges at Lake Langano, and Ethiopia’s plight becomes even direr.

Anuradha Mittal, executive director of the Oakland Institute sums up the state of affairs in Ethiopia:

Ethiopia’s uneven response hurts investor confidence

Throw in the obligatory accusation to Eritrea as well and this sloppy reaction is par for the course for the Ethiopian government.

This problem is here to stay

Under the Radar uncovers political risk events around the world overlooked by mainstream media. By detecting hidden risks, we keep you ahead of the pack and ready for new opportunities.

Under the Radar is written by Jeremy Luedi.

In Ethiopia’s war against social media, the truth is the main casualty

By Paul Schemm WashingtonpostPeople attend a prayer ceremony for protesters who died recently in the town of Bishoftu, Ethiopia, during the Irreecha festival for the Oromo people. The government blames social media for exaggerating the loss of life. (Tiksa Negeri/Reuters)

The annual U.N. General Assembly meeting provides an unparalleled opportunity for world leaders to take to the bully pulpit of the U.N. chamber and trumpet their country’s achievements or slam their enemies.

Last month, presidents, kings and prime ministers talked about the dangers of climate change, progress made in development goals, the threats of terrorism or their responses to the global immigration crisis. But when Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn took the podium Sept. 21, the global challenge he had in mind was perhaps unexpected: social media.

There were many other things he could have discussed, including Ethiopia’s impressive investments in infrastructure like hydroelectric dams and its high growth rates — or even a devastating drought that the government and its international partners have confronted this past year.

“We are seeing how misinformation could easily go viral via social media and mislead many people, especially the youth,” he said. “Social media has certainly empowered populists and other extremists to exploit people’s genuine concerns and spread their message of hate and bigotry without any inhibition.”

The state has singled out social media as being a key factor in driving the unrest now gripping the country. Sites like Facebook and Twitter are now largely blocked in the country, as is Internet on mobile phones, which is how most people in this country of 94 million find their way online.

For much of last year, Ethiopians, especially in the vast Oromo community, have been protesting the government over corruption, lack of jobs and poor administration. Their efforts have been championed by many Ethiopian dissidents living abroad, especially in the United States, who have held rallies for them and bombarded social media sites with denunciations of the regime’s harsh suppression of protests.

After at least 55 people were killed in a stampede at the Irreecha cultural festival Oct. 2, overseas activists called for “five days of rage,” and for the next week, factories, government buildings and tourist lodges were attacked across the Oromo region in a spasm of violence that prompted the government to declare a state of emergency Oct. 9.

While Ethiopia is nominally a democracy, the ruling party and its allies hold every seat in parliament, and it is described by the Committee to Protect Journalists as one of the most censored countries in the world and a top jailer of journalists.

Now, however, with the Internet and the technologies it has spawned — which the government has spent millions developing the necessary infrastructure for — more and more dissident voices are being heard, but often without the restraint or commitment to accuracy of more mainstream media.

“I am fairly certain the restrictions they have put in place now are less about silencing Ethiopians and more about restricting the influence of the diaspora,” said Nicholas Benequista, a former journalist who worked in Ethiopia and is now the research manager for the U.S.-based Center for International Media Assistance.

“Ethiopia is more vulnerable to the rumor, misinformation and provocation coming out of the diaspora because it has prevented an independent, professional and ethical media from growing inside the country,” he added. “I actually think they are beginning to realize that.”

In the wake of the Irreecha tragedy, Jawar Mohammed, a Minneapolis-based Oromo activist and head of the opposition Oromo Media Network, posted on his Facebook page that troops had fired on the crowd with live ammunition while helicopter gunships mowed down innocent protesters — something that journalists and witnesses there said simply did not happen.

In a strange twist, the government, which often interferes with foreign journalists attempting to report across the country, ended up citing Western media reports that none of the victims exhibited gunshot wounds to bolster their version of events.

Mohammed said he provides the protest movement with tactical and strategic advice on civil disobedience and has actively called for attacking businesses to wound the regime economically.

#OromoRevolution There is more severe destruction coming your way as long as you keep killing our people and…https://t.co/9d5GUjzUT8

— Jawar Mohammed (@Jawar_Mohammed) October 12, 2016

A tour through his Facebook and Twitter account reveals postings in three languages — Amharic, Oromo and English — describing protests, shootings and riots across the country, as well as incidents like soldiers shooting their commanders and the use of artillery against unarmed civilians that have not been described anywhere else, and which are a bit hard to swallow.

“We have tens of thousands of activists taking pictures and photos as they take part in protest actions. They pass it to us, we verify the story using various mechanisms and share with the public,” he told The Post in an email. “When Internet is down, we have alternative ways where critical information reaches us, although the volume significantly drops.”

The degree to which social media actually translates into direct activism has long been debated. Some maintain that the role of Facebook in coordinating and fueling the Arab Spring uprisings has been vastly exaggerated.

Ethiopia, with its impoverished countryside, has an Internet penetration of between 4 and 12 percent, with few being able to afford the smartphones to take advantage of the 3G network — when it hasn’t been shut down.

Mohammed, however, says that all it takes is a few people accessing his messages through proxies or special software and then passing it on through word-of-mouth or phone calls to other activists on the ground.

Yet others active in Ethiopia’s social media environment prefer not to overestimate the influence of people like Mohammed, ascribing the unrest more to people’s well-founded anger rather than following orders from abroad.

Daniel Berhane, an Addis Ababa-based blogger and editor of the Horn Affairs Network news site, said many times in the past, Mohammed and others have called for “days of rage” and there had been little response. It was only in the wake of huge loss of life at one of the most sacred festivals of the Oromo people that there was so much violence.

His website has hosted a number of articles critical of Mohammed, and he dismissed the veracity of much of Mohammed’s reporting, but admitted that knowing through social media that others were angry helped sustain the movement.

“Social medial tells you if the other district is protesting and it makes you feel like you are not alone,” he said. “It sends a signal that the rage already exists on the ground.”

The problem, according to Berhane, is that there are not many online voices disputing the exaggerated narratives of the diaspora activists. The government relies on its monopoly of traditional media like radio and television and leaves the world of social media uncontested.

“The government doesn’t have a clue for using alternative voices even to support their own policies,” he said. “They can’t tolerate even a 1 percent deviation from their own view.”